There are key numbers to be aware of when betting over/unders, but they don't hit frequently enough for a tease to make any mathematical sense. NFL totals simply don't fall on certain numbers or within a specific range enough to justify the math. Just don't do it! Rule 3: Don't Tease Totals You're essentially paying for points that don't matter.

This is even crazier in the playoffs since games can't end in a tie. You're simply giving up too much edge by crossing over a dead range that will only include a maximum of one key number. Recreational bettors make this mistake far too often. On a related note, don't even consider teasing teams from -3 to +3, -1 to +5, or anything else that 'crosses zero.' TAKE ADVANTAGE NOW Rule 2: Don't Ever Cross Zero Again, this analysis only applies to teasing NFL sides. If you consider a few other factors (which I'll explain shortly), you can potentially improve that percentage. Those results capture the closing lines on all teams in those specific spread ranges. That gives us a total of 592-189 or 75.8%, which easily clears the 72.4% hurdle rate. And favorites between -7.5 and -8.5 have historically covered at a slightly higher clip of 76.8% (218-66). NFL regular season underdogs between +1.5 and +2.5 covered a 6-point teaser 75.2% of the time (374-123). The story changes if we filter for all teases that would've captured both the 3 and 7. That obviously doesn't clear the hurdle rate of 72.4%. If we look back in our Bet Labs database, all NFL regular season spreads since 2003 covered only 68.7% (6,638-3,026) of the time if teased six points over a sample set containing just under 10,000 data points. In order to break even on a 6-point teaser at -110, you need teams that have a greater than 72.4% chance of covering after being teased. You may hear some bettors refer to doing this as the good ol' Wong teaser (in reference to gambling author Stanford Wong). Here's a list of key numbers for NFL spreads - games end at 3 or 7 a combined 25% of the team.įrom a purely mathematical standpoint, you give yourself an edge without taking anything else into account by simply crossing 3 and 7 with both parts of a teaser at -110. Therefore, you almost always want to cross both when teasing a side. However, 3 and 7 are kings since games end on those two numbers at a significantly higher clip than the rest. Historically, 3, 4, 6, 7, 10 and 14 are the six most common margins of victory in the NFL.

4 game teaser payout